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The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?

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President Trump announced that he would apply a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the U.S., and multiple countries will face an additional tariff.

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Historically, when the S&P 500 has fallen 10% and yield on 10-yr USTs has declined 50+ bps, the economy has been heading into recession ~70% of the time. We reached both milestones in March.

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Immediately after the 2024 presidential elections, positive animal spirits catapulted the stock market higher due to hopes of stimulating tax cuts and deregulation legislation.

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While the setup was good coming into 2025, markets struggled with ongoing changes to the US policy approach.

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Q4 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP At 2.5%, Higher Than Expected

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Are Value Stocks (Like Green Bananas) Ripening?

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Volatility returning has seen S&P 500 sink into correction territory. Morningstar Research's David Sekera says that while trade tensions have weighed on markets, there may be more at play.

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Job openings rose, there was no rise in jobless claims even after the large layoffs in the government sector, and the inflation reports were better than expected. Click to read.

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As equity investors, we look for companies that have been sold down to well below their intrinsic business value.

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In 2024, returns were strong across stocks and bonds, but push out to two years, and the S&P 500 produced its highest return since the go-go '90s.

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NB believes easing inflation, lower policy rates and a more pro-business political environment can support above-trend U.S. growth. Click to read.